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| Tide turns for US dollar? |
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| Tuesday, 30 June 2009 | |
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"The correction in dollar strength has been sharp over the past few months, but the key support area I've been watching in the U.S. Dollar Index has proven resilient. Now the dollar's resurgence is under way, and it's time to hop on. "The dollar has broken key trendlines against the Australian dollar, the Euro, the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar. This further indicates that this recent trend of dollar weakness should be over. "Perhaps the biggest confirmation, however, is occurring in the stock market; the S&P 500 has broken a key supportive trendline that describes the sharp climb from the March lows of 666. This is a very bearish signal that should summon heavy selling pressure. "This recent surge in risk appetite has been bad for the dollar, bad for U.S. longer-term Treasuries and good for almost all other markets. But now, with this tide reversal, I expect that the investor optimism and the cherry-picked data that has been paraded as 'green shoots' will fade quickly. "The focus should return to the fragile nature of the global economy, the structural issues that need repairing, and the long road that lies ahead for economic growth. Bottom line: This environment bodes well for the U.S. dollar and safety of capital, in general. "So it's time to enter a position in PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: UUP). This ETF offers the easiest way to express a bullish view on the dollar. "Plus, the major support area in the dollar that was tested and held its ground gives us a clear area to place a stop loss order -- at the $23.09 level." |
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Jack Adamo
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