Spacer
Spacer
Spacer
 
Best of the Best: Today's Top Investment Ideas
G10 Currency ETF (DBV): Indirect play on China yuan Print E-mail Digg It!
Friday, 07 December 2007

 “Short of being a professional currency trader on an institutional desk, there is no easy and direct way to trade China's currency, the yuan,” notes Asian expert Keith Fitz-Gerald.

In his top-notch new service, The New China Trader, he explains, “To do so, we need to look at indirect opportunities, such as through the PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund (ASE: DBV)." For more sophisticated investors, Keith offers the following analysis.

“One of the world's biggest mysteries is what China will do with the $1.4 trillion worth of currency reserves it's sitting on. Its currency reserve is the single largest currency stockpile in the history of mankind, and it gives the Chinese potentially unprecedented power when it comes to influencing the world's major currencies.

“They will spend it. In fact, the process is already beginning, and that suggests it's time to ‘trade the untradable.’ China is going to throw a big rock into the global ‘waters.’ We know it's coming yet we can't buy it. But we can prepare for the ripples.

“At the present time, every major currency pair is traded in real time around the world to the tune of trillions of dollars a day. Yet, the Yuan is not included.

“This is particularly true for currencies that belong to the countries referred to as the G10. In 1971, this group replaced the world's fixed exchange rate regime with the fiat trading mechanisms in use today. And therein is the opportunity.

“When China begins to release its reserves, it will affect the relationships between the ‘G10’ currencies - and likely in a big way. These currencies are: U.S. dollars, euros, Japanese yen, Canadian dollars, Swiss francs, British pounds, Australian dollars, New Zealand dollars, Norwegian kroner and Swedish kronor.

“Currencies traders know this and have been actively engaged in a simultaneous series of transactions known as ‘pairs trading’ to capitalize on the movement when it occurs.

“It's a sophisticated strategy that's traditionally beyond the capabilities of all but the most savvy individuals and professionals. Until now.

“The folks at Deutsche Bank recently created the PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund, an ETF that offers individual investors the chance to participate in a very sophisticated institutional strategy.

"The strategy uses a single investment vehicle that offers easy access to the systematic returns so prevalent in currency markets. Here's how it works in a nutshell.

"The funds managers simultaneously buy futures contracts on the strongest three G10 currencies as determined by the highest interest rates. At the same time, they are shorting futures contracts on the weakest three G10 currencies which are determined by the lowest interest rates.

“Then, the contracts are collateralized by futures contracts using the safest financial instruments in the world, 90-day U.S. Treasury bonds. The portfolio is rebalanced quarterly.

“Like anything, there are no guarantees though. The fund may take some getting used to given current market volatility, and we may be early to the party. But like many things coming out of China these days, there will be no warning when the diversification process begins.

“China is growing increasingly frustrated with a weaker dollar by the minute, which points to this process getting under way in earnest sooner rather than later. If we are right, every major currency pair will readjust in the process, again without warning.

“If we are wrong, DBV still offers meaningful diversification, at a time when the markets seem to be tripping over their own two fat feet closer to home. Buy PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund and let it run with a 25% trailing stop.”




Spacer
 
Search Our Archives
Trading and Investing Tips
Ebix (EBIX): A stock split buy

 In his 2-for 1 advisory, Neil Macneale focuses exclusively on buying stocks that have just announced upcoming stock splits. The latest buy in his portfolio is Ebix (NASDAQ: EBIX).

Read more...

ETF expert targets energy

 "One sector I’ve been watching closely for an attractive entry point is energy, and that point is here in the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE)," says Doug Fabian in The ETF Trader.

Read more...

Revlon (REV): A beauty buy

 "Revlon (NYSE: REV) promises a better look for both consumers and investors," says Ian Wyatt. In his The SmallCap Investor, he says, "The company is firing on all cylinders." 

Read more...

A 'Select' pick in technology

 "I remain bullish on technology heading into 2010," says fund expert Jim Lowell. In The Fidelity Investor, he reviews one of his long-standing buys in the sector -- Select Technology (FSPTX).

Read more...

CVS (CVS): A Ben Graham value

 In The Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter, an exceptional service that picks stocks meeting the criteria of the legendary investor, J. Royden Ward looks at CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS).

Read more...

Royale Energy (ROYL): Gas gains

 Konrad Kuhn, a specialist in low-priced stocks, sees upside potential in Royale Energy (NASDAQ: ROYL), a speculative play on natural gas. Here's the latest from The Kon-Lin Letter.

Read more...

Bernie bets: Puts and calls

 Bernie Schaeffer uses a combination of fundamental and technical and sentiment indicators to select his stock and options trades. Here's a long and a short idea from The Options Advisor.

Read more...

Disney (DIS): High quality value

 "An improving economy provides lots of leverage for theme-park, media, and movie operations at Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS)," says Chuck Carlson in his The DRIP Investor.

Read more...

The US dollar: A contrary view

 "Everybody thinks the US dollar is toast but I suspect that a sharp, if temporary rally will be with us before long," says Carl Delfeld in his Chartwell ETF Advisor. Here's his overview.

Read more...

Adens stick with gold

 "Despite recent gains gold is not yet overbought and the current rise is likely headed higher," say resource experts Mary Anne and Pamela Aden. Here's their latest from The Aden Forecast.

Read more...

Spacer
Support TheStockAdvisors.com



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites
newsflashr network
 
Get A Quote
Symbol
Most Popular Articles
Translate This Site


 

Enter email:

 

 Our Partners

 Newsletter Newsmore...
Delfeld: Red, White & Bold

Global expert Carl Delfeld's new book -- Red, White & Bold -- is now available. Steve Forbes says, "Carl's perspective is truly unique and insightful in  understanding the global economy."


Toby Smith goes "green"

Toby Smith, editor of ChangeWave Investing, has just published his new book on investing in green technology -- Billion Dollar Green.


Gone Fishin' Portfolio

A new book from The Oxford Club's Alexander Green -- The Gone Fishin' Portfolio -- provides an all-weather approach to building long-term wealth.


An expert's guide to China

Check out Jim Trippon's new book, Becoming Your Own China Stock Guru. To order the book, click here.


©2008 The Stock Advisors | About TSA | Home | News From The Newsletters | Ask The Experts | Disclaimer
Clicky Web Analytics