Monday November 07, 2011
by Kevin McElroy, contributing editor Daily Profit
What's the best time to buy gold on a seasonality basis? Now. Over the past 40 years November and December accounted for almost half of the year's gains for gold.
And 2011 doesn't differ all that much from the long-term seasonal trends. We had the characteristic spike in May, followed by a substantial correction in September-October.
And if this year is anything at all like the previous 40, we'll see about 44% of the year's gains in November and December. That's huge.
The question is: why are these two months so good for gold?
It has a lot to do with Asian gold buying, specifically, the Indian wedding season, which lasts from the end of September through December.
That sustained buying from one of the biggest and fastest growing economies for three months on end tends to have a crescendo effect on gold prices into the New Year.
So this tendency for gold to rise in November and December isn't just some bizarre cherry-picked technical chart: it's a solid fundamental trend of supply and demand functions.
And despite what you might think, higher priced gold has not resulted in less consumption in India. In fact, it's resulted in more consumption. Over the past 10 years, Indian gold consumption rose an average of 13% per year -- even as gold rose faster in price.
So now that we know we have 40 years of a fundamental trend on our side - what should we do? My suggestion would be to buy gold now.
I prefer physical gold like American Gold Eagles or Canadian Gold Maples. But that's my personal belief for my personal account.
If you don't have the interest in taking ownership of physical gold, I'd suggest buying shares of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).
If nothing else, you can trade this ETF for the next two months and pick up some solid gains before year end. Or if you're options-savvy, you can buy in-the-money calls on GLD.
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