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Royal Caribbean: Passing rough seas


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by John Buckingham, editor The Prudent Speculator

Shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) have fallen more than 12% since the beginning of February. This setback followed the mishaps of its larger competitor Carnival.

Carnival's problems include the Concordia tragedy and the stranding of a ship in the Indian Ocean. In addition, investor are concerned over slow bookings in Europe as the region struggles through its sovereign debt issues.

We suggest taking advantage of the recent weakness to initiate a position in the attractively valued shares.


We like that Royal has slowed capacity growth as capital spending should materially decrease, which should lead to strong free cash flow generation that can be used to strengthen the balance sheet and eventually be returned to shareholders via dividends and stock buybacks.

Furthermore, we see RCL as well-positioned to benefit from one of the most attractive fleets in the industry, strong earnings leverage and disciplined fuel hedging.

In addition, the cruise market is relatively underpenetrated (especially in the U.S.) and given the likely rebound from recent economic and employment woes and the coming wave of retiring Baby Boomers, we see the potential for a solid increase in demand going forward.

Coupled with an industry-wide slowing of supply and management’s commitment to expanding returns, RCL should be able to further drive increased earnings power.

Learn more about this financial newsletter at John Buckingham's The Prudent Speculator.

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