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Enerplus: At a turning point?


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by Geoffrey Seiler, editor BullMarket.com

Canadian energy producer Enerplus (ERF) hasn't had a really good quarter in quite a while, and its recently reported  Q4 results could very well be the turning point for the company.

The firm generated cash flow from operations of $199.7 million, or $1.01 per unit (Canadian dollars) in Q4, which was up from $156.7 million, or 87 cents per unit, a year ago.

Based on current forward prices, Enerplus expects fund flows to grow by 8%. Looking at the company's balance sheet, its debt-to-funds-flow ratio was 1.7x.


This was actually a very strong quarter for Enerplus, with the Canadian energy producer beating on most metrics. Funds Flows easily surpassed the $172 million consensus, while production surpassed the 84.4MBOE/D analyst view.

This was a stark difference to the company's Q3 report when problems with drilling and tie-in activities in the Marcellus Shale negatively impacted its results.

The company's balance sheet has improved markedly over the past year, and operating costs were drastically cut. The company's CapEx-adjusted payout ratio, meanwhile, is now comparatively conservative, making the dividend look very stable. It also has solid oil hedges in place for this year.

With the stock trading at a discount to peers and well below its NAV, we think Enerplus could finally be set up for a rally. We rate the stock, which currently yields about 8.7%, a "Buy" with a $17 target.

Learn more about this financial newsletter at Geoffrey Seiler's BullMarket.com

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