Time to bet on Buffett: A 'no-brainer'

"Warren Buffett’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B), has been the single greatest investment of our lifetimes," says Alexander Green, noting, "His compounded annual gain from 1966 to 2007 was 21.1% vs. 10.3% or the S&P 500." 

In the Oxford Insight, the Oxford Club Investment Director explains, "It is now time to buy the 'ultimate no-brainer'." Here's his assessment.

"Despite this strong long-term performance, Buffett experienced a rare earnings letdown during the second quarter of this year.

"Although revenue increased 10% to $29.3 billion, insurance related write-downs hurt the company’s bottom line. Still, the shortfall was far from cataclysmic. For the quarter, earnings fell 7.6% to $2.88 billion.

"Despite the shortfall, the company still maintains a top-notch credit rating and has over $28 billion in cash, a war chest for the world’s greatest investor. How has Buffett been so successful? He takes a disciplined value approach to investing. And he sticks with it.

Advertisement

"Before he invests a dime, he asks: 

• Is the company in an industry with good economics? That is, is it not in an industry competing on price?
  
• Does the company have a consumer monopoly or brand name that commands loyalty? Can anyone with an abundance of resources compete successfully with the company?
• 
  Are the earnings on an upward trend with good and consistent profit margins?
• 
  Is the debt-to-equity ratio low, or is the earnings-to-debt ratio high? Can the company repay debt even in years when earnings are lower than average?
• 
  Does the company have high and consistent returns on invested capital?
• 
  Does the company retain earnings for growth?
• 
  Does the business have high maintenance cost of operations, high capital expenditure or investment cash outflow? (If so, that’s not good.)
• 
  Does the company reinvest earnings in good business opportunities? Does management have a good track record of profiting from these investments?
• 
  Is the company free to adjust prices for inflation?

"In short, he makes companies jump through a lot of hoops before he considers putting them in his portfolio. He also makes concentrated purchases.

"For its size, Buffett’s portfolio has few stocks. But once a downturn comes, he buys millions of shares of solid businesses at reasonable prices. Berkshire is a major player in the markets for insurance, soft drinks, chocolates, shoes, jewelry, publishing, furniture, steel, energy, homebuilding and private jets.

"Berkshire owns significant portions in well-known, cheap, dividend-paying stocks like Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO); Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC); which is one of the few U.S. banks in good standing; Procter and Gamble (NYSE: PG), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) and others. 

"What is Buffett buying now? Besides buying large chunks of Swiss Re, a major reinsurer, Buffett has been buying unloved – but sound – financial stocks. He’s increased his position in the midwestern banking powerhouse, U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB).

"Buffett is also buying more of Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI), acquiring shares during the recent market weakness. Why is Buffett buying companies if the economic downturn, by his own admission, is likely to be deeper and longer lasting than generally expected? 

"First off, because he knows that nobody can accurately or consistently predict something as big, diverse and dynamic as the global economy.

"Secondly, he knows that even if you somehow knew what was going to happen in the economy, you still wouldn’t necessarily know what is about to happen in the stock market. Perversely, stocks sometimes fall during good times. They often rally during bad times.

"Thirdly, Buffett knows that the stock market is a discounting mechanism. It takes the news and reflects it into stock prices immediately. Who in their right mind would sell their stocks today because he realizes the economy is slowing down? We’ve known that for months now.

"Buffett knows that nothing beats the long-term returns available in equities. Where else can you put your money to work today? In real estate that is in a death spiral? In bonds that pay less than 5%? In money markets yielding 2%?

"When we first recommended the group B shares in February 2001, shares were trading at $2,295. At the peak, shares traded as high as $5,059 per share in December 2007, a 123% return in a little more than seven years.

"Yet the B shares are currently trading at $3,860, off 24% from the 52-week high and 20% year-to-date. History shows that when Berkshire is down 24%, it’s not just a good buy. It’s an outstanding one."