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Thursday July 03, 2008
Novartis (NVS): 'Best pipeline in the business'
"But opportunity always lurks in the wreckage, and one Big Pharma, in particular, is being unfairly punished." Here's his bullish outlook on Novartis (NYSE: NVS), which he calls the "only Big Pharma worth owning." "Unlike others in the sector, Novartis doesn't suffer from an empty pipeline. It's launched more drugs globally than any other firm in the past seven years. It has more than 100 projects in phase II (or later) trials. And it expects to file at least six new drug applications this year alone. "Plus, its products cover all bases, from vaccines to specialized drugs to generics to eye-care products, even animal health items. And most are enjoying rapidly expanding sales. 
"Moreover, the company maintains a fortress-like financial position that includes a $10.8 billion cash horde. Management keeps raising the dividend, for 11 years and counting. And it recently announced a massive $9 billion stock-repurchase plan, too. Hardly the hallmarks of a sickly stock. "And that's exactly why Novartis -- the world's fifth-largest pharmaceutical company -- is part of our portfolio. "In early April, it announced an acquisition of Nestlé's 77% stake in eye-care product company Alcon for $39 billion. A nice bolt-on acquisition, certain to enhance its near-term growth opportunities. "Shortly after that, Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock based on increased expectations for the company's vaccine business. Recall in 2005, Novartis purchased Chiron, making it a major competitor in the vaccine market - a high-margin industry, expected to grow by at least 20% per year for the next five years. "And sure enough, when Novartis reported earnings a few days later, it beat expectations. Net income rose 7% to $2.32 billion, thanks in large part to accelerating sales for its vaccines. "After that, Novartis turned the American Society of Clinical Oncology - into a PR manager's dream. It stole the show with what looks to be a sure-fire new drug (RAD001) for kidney cancer patients. We also got word that its bone drug Zometa reduced the risk of breast cancer recurring by 35% in an 1,800 person trial. "The favorable news earned Novartis another upgrade, this time from Cowen & Co. And to cap things off, Novartis announced another acquisition; it's buying a closely held biotech company, Protez Pharmaceuticals for $400 million. "The move brings PZ-601 into Novartis' line-up. PZ-601 is an antibiotic used to combat potentially fatal drug-resistant infections, or superbugs such as MRSA (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus). "In the end, the string of promising developments and the resulting price action make it time to move Novartis back to a 'Buy.' With the best pipeline in the business, Novartis stands out as the only Big Pharma worth owning." |
News Flash
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"The pipelines of most Big Pharmas are bone dry; last year, the FDA approved the lowest number of new drugs (19) since 1983," notes