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Tuesday August 31, 2010
Motorola (MOT): 'Quintessential special situation'
by Chuck Carlson, editor The DRIP Investor  In a number of respects, Motorola (MOT) is the quintessential “special situations” stock.I like the various investment angles — company break up, asset sales, buying by a big insider, a reenergized product line. The firm is in the midst of a major restructuring, which includes selling off assets and splitting the company into two separately traded entities. The breakup, scheduled for next year, will separate the company’s handset phone business from its enterprise mobility business. Typically, Wall Street tends to value the parts more than the whole, so a breakup, if successful, should be a plus for shareholders. Billionaire investor Carl Icahn recently upped his stake in Motorola to nearly 10% of the outstanding stock. Icahn’s presence lends some takeover appeal to the stock as well as some price support. 
The company’s product cycle appears to be on an upswing with the success of the fim’s DROID product line. Given Motorola has been a chronic under-achiever for years, my guess is Wall Street’s expectations are pretty low for the company. Thus, the hurdle isn’t very high for the company to beat expectations. Per-share profits have beaten the consensus earnings estimate in the last four quarters, and I suspect the company will continue to put up results that beat expectations. To be sure, it is tough to get too excited about these shares. The stock has consistently disappointed Wall Street with its inability to put together consistent earnings and revenue growth. And the competition in its primary markets is very keen. Of course, these are all reasons the stock trades at just $8 per share versus its 2006 high of more than $26 per share. Do I expect Motorola stock to get back to 2006 levels? No. However, I am feeling more fondly about these shares than I have in probably three years. I like the fact that the stock is still pretty much hated on Wall Street. And I like the sub-$10 stock price. While it is tough to recommend these shares for conservative DRIP investors (after all, the company doesn’t even pay a dividend), more aggressive investors looking for a stock that is not likely to correlate closely with the overall market may find these shares appealing. I do believe Motorola will outperform the S&P 500 Index over the next 18 months. For dividend reinvestment investors, Motorola offers a direct-purchase plan whereby any investor may buy the first share and every share directly from the company. Minimum initial investment is $1000, although Motorola will waive the initial minimum if an investor agrees to automatic monthly investment via electronic debit of a bank account of a minimum $50. Learn more about this financial newsletter at Chuck Carlson's The DRIP Investor. |
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