Wednesday November 19, 2008
"Different investors have different objectives, and this isn't a one-size-fits-all market," says technical trading expert Michael Ashbaugh.
Here, the editor of Marketwatch's The Technical Indicator offers 4 strategies for trading within the current market environment as well as four trading ideas within the energy sector.
"The technicals are working again. That's not to say this is an easy market to trade - it's almost impossible - but the recent technical moves suggest the price action isn't totally random. Looking ahead, four viable approaches come to mind:
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* Trade the range. Buy S&P 820, sell S&P 1,010, and maintain tight stops. This represents a massive 23% range, and the markets are habitually traversing half the range across a day or two. Under this approach, Thursday's close at S&P 911 is low risk/reward.
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* Wait for the break atop S&P 1,010. This tactic has a huge limitation, because 1,010 holds 10% above current levels. Still, when or if the break higher occurs, the S&P could easily spike an additional 10% to the 1,106 area. The 1,106 level marks the Sept. 29 close, the day the market crash truly took hold.
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* See if the 20-day moving average takes hold as a near-term trending indicator. The S&P's 20-day currently holds at 935, and the next significant break atop this area could capture a sharp market spike.
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* Wait much, much longer until signs of genuine stability emerge. This approach likely leaves 20% of potential upside on the table, or more, but it also reduces the risk of another 20-30% of downside.
"So again, these are possible approaches. Different investors have different objectives, and this isn't a one-size-fits-all market. And notice that all four approaches mean you're currently out of the market. This is undeniably a bear market. And that more or less sums it up.
"Meanwhile, several oil-related stocks are on our radar. Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL) is a large-cap oil and gas name poised to rise.
"After stabilizing atop its October range, it recently cleared its 50-day moving average for the first time since July. The rally came on increased volume, improving the chances of further follow through.
"World Fuel Services Corp. (NYSE: INT) is a fuel-procurement services company. It recently broke decisively to 52-week highs, a move that follows its strong third-quarter results issued last week.Though near-term extended, a pullback toward support around $31 would mark an attractive entry.
"EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) remains well positioned. With recent gains, it has sustained a break from its October trading range, holding its former range top as support. Its recent strong-volume break atop the 50-day is bullish, and its outlook would further strengthen on a break atop the November peak, around $85.50.
"Finally, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) is a well positioned mid-cap name. It's sustained a break atop the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day's slope has turned higher, consistent with a near-term trendshift. Its latest rally came on strong volume, improving the chances of further upside."
