For blue chip buyers: 'This too shall pass'

"From all indications the Dow Industrials are on track to test the lows established last March," cautions Kelley Wright, noted for his focus on blue chip, dividend-paying stocks.

In his Investment Quality Trends, he explains, "Any weakness creates creates another opportunity to acquire some outstanding stocks." Here, he looks at the outlook for the market along with ten "timely" picks for conservative, long-term investors."

The Dow Transports, which have led spectacularly and only recently established a new all-time high, have begun to tumble as well.

"Meanwhile, the low for the Industrials was 11,740.15 on March 10; the low for the Transports was 4140.29 in mid-January. If both Averages close below these respective lows then a bear market is most likely in force.

"If one Average makes a new low but the other doesn’t then it is only a correction, albeit a brutal one, in a bull market. We will know soon.

Advertisement

"In the meantime, the cash dividend for the Dow is $322.40. One year ago the dividend was $284.06. Amidst all the turmoil in the markets and the economy something must be going right with the Dow 30 companies because the dividend is ever climbing.

"Dividends, as we all know, can only come from the reality of earnings; you can’t pay what you don’t have. The dividend yield on the Dow is currently 2.66%, which represents an 11% downside to a 3.0% yield and the historically repetitive area of Undervalue.

"Will the Average make it down to that level? No one knows but that isn’t the point. At current levels the upside is FAR greater, particularly in many of the stocks in our Undervalued area.

"Fellow value lover and famed contrarian David Dreman cited recently that there have been 12 panics and recoveries since World War II.

"What his studies showed was that after the markets hit their lows, they were up 36.6% a year on average afterwards - and there wasn't one year that was negative. Two years after the panic lows the market, as judged by the Dow Industrials, was up 53% on average.

"Based on the current Dow dividend of $318.41, a 53% advance would still fall below the current Overvalue area of Dow 21,227, based on a dividend yield of 1.50%.

"Pie in the sky you say? Maybe, but over the long-term it is hard to bet against capitalism and the markets. In other words, this too shall pass.

"Meanwhile, the good news is that the retracement on the Industrials from 13,100 to present levels has created another opportunity to acquire some outstanding stocks that I suggest we will hold for quite some time.

"Our current 'Timely Ten' consists of Undervalued stocks that generally have a S&P Dividend & Earnings Quality rating of A- or better, and a designation for exemplary long-term dividend growth.

"THese stocks also offer a P/E ratio of 15 or less, a payout ratio of 50% or less (75% for Utilities), debt of 50% or less (75% for Utilities), and technical characteristics on the daily and weekly charts that suggests the potential for imminent capital appreciation.

"It is our reasoned expectation based on our methodology and experience for what we believe will perform best over the next five years.

"Do we believe that all 10 will go up simultaneously or immediately? Of course not. Our four decades of research and experience, however, leads us to believe that these stocks, purchased at current Undervalued levels, are well positioned for appreciation."

Here are his most updated Timely Ten stocks along with their recent dividend yields:

1. Colgate Palmolive (NYSE: CL) -- 2.2%
2. PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) -- 2.5%
3. Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) -- 2.4%
4. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- 2.8%
5. Mc Donald's (NYSE: MCD) -- 2.6%
6. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) -- 1.6%
7. IBM (NYSE: IBM) -- 1.6%
8. General Electric (NYSE: GE) -- 4.2%
9. Altria Group (NYSE: MO) -- 5.6%
10. Automatic Data Process (NYSE: ADP) -- 2.8%