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The Prudent Speculator

Express Scripts: A value play


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by Richard Moroney, editor Dow Theory Forecasts

Richard MoroneyPharmacy-benefits provider Express Scripts (ESRX) is not your classic value stock.

At 20 times trailing earnings, the shares trade at a 13% premium to the median health-care distributor and service stock in the S&P 1500 Index. But the company, which administers drug plans for employers and insurers, has superior growth potential.

Wall Street expects Express Scripts to earn $3.70 per share this year, up 25%. For 2013, the consensus projects 21% growth. Factoring in expected growth, Express Scripts looks more like a value play.

Shares trade at 17 times estimated current-year earnings, versus 18 for its peers — a group that on average is expected to increase per-share profi ts 11% this year and 15% in 2013. Importantly, profit estimates for Express Scripts could prove too low.

The April acquisition of Medco is expected to generate at least $1 billion in annual savings. In addition, the company is eschewing higher-cost retail pharmacies, which should trim expenses and boost profit margins.

Express Scripts’ ability to keep drug costs low is winning new customers, and the company is positioned to leverage its estimated 30% market share in the fast-growing market for specialty pharmacy services.

Aided by contributions from Medco, Express Scripts’ June-quarter earnings per share hit $0.88, up 24% and $0.06 above the consensus.

That momentum should carry over to the September quarter, as estimates have risen in recent months. Express Scripts is a Focus List Buy and a Long-Term Buy.

Learn more about this financial newsletter at Richard Moroney's Dow Theory Forecast.

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