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Wednesday August 27, 2008
Dollar Bull Fund bets on US gains
The international stock expert and editor of the Global Bull Market Alert explains,"My latest pick, Direxion Funds Dollar Bull 2.5x Fund (DXDBX) is a leveraged bet on a sustained dollar rally." Here's his review. "After flirting with record lows against the euro in July, the U.S. dollar hit a six-month high against the euro as the economic slowdown outside of the United States gathered pace. 
"The popular 'decoupling theory,' that the rest of the world's economies can continue to thrive while the U.S. economy slows, has proven to be bunk. As it turns out, other global economies, not the U.S., are flirting with recession. "It was recently announced that the 13-nation, euro-area economy shrank in the second quarter, as the economies of Germany, France, and Italy all contracted. "And because inflation in the eurozone is far too high for comfort, few expect the ECB to cut interest rates before 2009. That means that you can expect European economies, and the Euro, to stagnate during the foreseeable future. "Relentless negative headlines notwithstanding, the U.S. economy doesn't seem to be in such bad shape after all. The U.S. economy grew at 1.9% in Q2 and a surge in export sales in June probably means that GDP growth for the most recent quarter will be revised upward. "The U.S economy also has the most to gain from the recent fall in the price of oil and is likely to recover more quickly than its counterparts in Europe and Asia. "That also means U.S. interest rates will head higher, sooner, to provide a further boost for the dollar. And the dollar’s revival is likely to put to rest talk of global central banks and other large holders of reserve assets diversifying out of the U.S. dollar. "So how far would a dollar rally go? On measures such as purchasing-power parity, the U.S. dollar still looks cheap against the euro, the Swedish crown, the Swiss frank and the U.K. pound sterling. A further 20% rally from current levels seems not a question of 'if', but 'when.' "The best way to play the dollar rally is to buy the Direxion Funds Dollar Bull 2.5x Fund -- a leveraged fund that seeks daily returns of 250% of the price performance of the U.S. dollar against six major world currencies: the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. "That means a 20% gain in the dollar should translate to a 50% gain in the fund. Place your stop at $28.25. With this kind of leverage, the fund should trade like a fairly volatile stock." |
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"I think the dollar's bullish trend is set to continue, and a further 20% rally from current levels seems not a question of 'if', but 'when,' says