COW: Resources expert turns bullish on meats

"We're bullish on meats," says Eric Roseman, who notes, "I'm convinced we're finally at a turning point in 2008 and at some point, I'm expecting beef and pork prices to surge."

Here, the resources expert and editor of The Commodity Trend Alert looks at an exchange-traded note with a memorable trading symbol -- iPath Dow Jones Livestock (NYSE: COW). With our apologizes to vegetarians, we offer the advisor's review.

"With virtually all commodities soaring over the last several months, the meats have been a disappointment - until about ten days ago. I think we finally broke-out.

"Like the grains, livestock maintain a negative correlation to common stocks. It's a great portfolio diversification tool, especially in 2008 when equities cratered during the first quarter and most commodities rallied.

"Live cattle and lean hogs have been poor inflation-adjusted investments or speculations since the bull market in raw materials was set afire in 2002.

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"Over the last six years, live cattle and lean hogs have gained just under 30% in nominal terms, or up barely 4% adjusted for inflation. That pales compared to the huge gains logged by the base metals, precious metals, the grains and other commodities.

"Now the tide is finally changing. Livestock producers are slaughtering more animals due to soaring feed costs. According to the USDA, the weekly slaughter rate of hogs was up 7% in March from 12 months earlier.

"Farmers are culling more hogs and live cattle because input costs are threatening not only their margins but their operational viability. It's no understatement that feeder costs are literally skyrocketing as grain prices have tripled since 2006. So for livestock producers, it's either downsize or go out of business.

"But as livestock herds begin to decline, supplies are bound to follow. Beef production is expected to fall 3.7% in the fourth quarter compared to 2007, according to the government's supply report.

"Plus, South Korea's recent announcement that it has lifted its ban on U.S. beef exports should drain whatever surplus currently exists in U.S. beef supply right at the same time seasonal consumption rises in North America amid the barbeque season.

"The way I see it, those steaks won't stay cheap for much longer. If hog-breeders in the United States have their way, the government might copy Canada's recent policy initiative not to grow their herds.

"The Canadian Harper government sponsored a program last year called the Federal Cull Breeding Swine Program that promises to pay Canadian farmers $50 million dollars not to produce more hogs.

"The objective is to reduce the supply of Canadian hogs, the supply of pork on the market and drive up prices. Ottawa is hoping to reduce the hog supply by about 10% so farmers can boost their incomes.

"In my eyes, when the government starts to get involved by subsidizing livestock farmers for not growing their herds, I get interested as a speculator.

"It's quite obvious to me that Canada, and probably the United States want to raise meat prices and give breeders a taste of the commodities bull market as they've been badly wounded by soaring feed costs, fuel prices and labor.

"I think the big picture for the meats is finally changing this spring and that's why I want you to open a new position in COW right away. BUY the iPath Dow Jones Livestock Sub-index ETN."