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Monday October 26, 2009
Bernie's bets: A trio of trades from Schaeffer
In his latest The Options Advisor, he looks at a trio of diverse trades: wireless semiconductor play, Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM); homebuilder, Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL); and miner, Southern Copper (NYSE: PCU). "Broadcom has rocketed up the charts in 2009, racking up a year-to-date gain of about 74%. "The stock has stair-stepped consistently higher since January, capitalizing on support at its 10-week and 20-week moving averages. "BRCM’s relentless upward momentum has forced many short sellers out of their bearish positions, as short interest on the equity dropped by nearly 20% during the past month. 
"With 4.4% of the stock’s float still dedicated to short interest, however, BRCM should benefit from a continuation of this short-covering trend. "Meanwhile, there’s plenty of room for more option players to board the security’s bullish bandwagon, as evidenced by BRCM’s skeptically skewed Schaeffer’s put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.57. "Analyst upgrades are also a possibility, with Zacks reporting that 55% of brokerage firms following the security rating this high-flying tech issue a 'hold' or worse. For options trades, we recommend buying the February 26 calls. "Pessimism continues to blanket the shares of Ryland. Traders have flocked to the stock’s puts, as the ISE/CBOE 50-day put/call volume ratio checks in at 4.05. "This ratio indicates that more than four puts have been purchased to open for every call during the past 50 trading sessions. "This ratio is also higher than 95% of all those taken during the past year, indicating that investors have not been more pessimistically aligned toward the shares at any other time during the past year. "Meanwhile, seven of the nine analysts following RYL rate it a 'hold,' leaving ample room for upgrades. Technically, the security has rallied more than 27% since the start of 2009, and has broken above resistance at its 20-month moving average. "In fact, the stock is poised to log its second consecutive monthly close above this trendline - a feat not accomplished since March 2006. For options trading, we recommend the April 20 calls. "Southern Copper continues to be an impressive performer. In fact, the security has soared more than 90% since the beginning of 2009, skyrocketing along the support of its 10-week and 20-week moving averages since February. "Traders have shrugged off this stellar performance, and are snatching up puts on the stock in an attempt to call a top to its uptrend. "The ISE/CBOE 50-day put/call volume ratio comes in at 1.26, as traders have bought to open more bearish bets than bullish. This ratio is higher than 90% of all those taken during the past year, revealing a growing skepticism toward the shares. "What’s more, brokerage firms are also downbeat toward the stock, as 10 of the 11 analysts following PCU rate it a 'hold' or worse. "This lingering pessimism amid the equity’s technical strength has bullish implications, as an unwinding of this negativity could fuel a significant rally in the shares. For options traders, we recommend the March 25 calls." |
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Options expert