| Two experts eye China Yuchai (CYD) |
| Friday, January 29, 2010 |
|
By Nicholas Vardy, editor The Global Bull Market Alert By Paul Goodwin, editor The Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report Two leading international financial newsletter editors remain bullish on the prospects for China Yuchai International Limited (NYSE: CYD), a maker of diesel engines. Here, we look at recent commentary from Nicholas Vardy (at left), editor of The Global Bull Market Alert and Paul Goodwin, editor of The Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report. Nicholas Vardy:
Earnings soared 292% last quarter on a 34% jump in revenue in Q3. And CYD is getting better at what it does: its after-tax profit margins jumped to a record 15.3%. In addition, CYD has announced a couple of high-profile joint ventures with both Caterpillar (China) and Jirui United Heavy Industry. This news has helped the stock break out of its recent trading range. Nevertheless, the stock remains a bargain in comparison to its U.S. rivals. While the market cap of rival Cummins, a manufacturer of diesel engines and related technology, equals its annual revenue, CYD's market cap trades at one-fourth that level. Meanwhile, Cummins' revenue is down 31%, while CYD's is soaring. Also, although I am skeptical of the credit bubble that is being blown in China, that's no reason to stand in the way of a profitable trade. There is a lot of short momentum in China with Asian stock markets jumping this morning as the Chinese government announced that exports jumped nearly 18% in December, after 13 months of declines. Paul Goodwin:
The 'International' in the company’s name refl ects its approval to sell its diesel engines in the environmentally picky eurozone. That certification is a tribute to the company’s substantial R&D staff of more than 370. One tangible result of this commitment to R&D is the company’s development of a prototype dual-fuel engine that uses either natural gas or diesel fuel or a mixture of the two.. This engine’s lower emissions will make it ideal for municipal buses. Another project is an ISG electric/diesel engine with a 20% reduction in fuel consumption. Financial results were outstanding last quarter. It’s worth noting that the last four quarters have produced earnings growth of -48%, 268%, -24% and the 292%. Clearly there are either significant market fluctuations or other transactions going on here, because revenues during the same four quarters were up 16%, 12%, 33% and 34%, respectively. The chart for CYD is another factor in its favor. After the familiar collapse in 2008 and recovery in 2009, the stock is out to new multi-year highs and has built a nice base since a November rally that lifted it from 10 to 17. The 25-day moving average is just approaching 15—which should provide some impetus. |
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