Friday January 08, 2010
"The global bull market is back in Brazil," says international investing expert Nicholas Vardy. In The Global Bull Market Alert, he says, "Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (NYSE: BRF) is our top pick for 2010."
"Brazil, as its place on the cover of Economist magazine recently confirmed, was the flavor of the month in emerging markets.
"Brazil had recently won the right to host the Olympics in 2016, raising its profile much like the Beijing Olympics did for China. Investors were pouring in.
"Its currency, the real, gained 50% against the U.S. dollar since the prior December, with the economy firing on all cylinders, posting an 8%-10% growth in Q3. My forecast has been that, overall, Brazil’s economy will grow by 5% in 2010.
"In December, the Inter-American Development Bank approved a $3-billion conditional credit line with Brazilian small and mid-sized businesses on Thursday. Around 75% of the new jobs created in Brazil this year were created by small and mid-sized businesses.
"With the market already up 76.9% in local currency terms at the time, betting on Brazil was clearly a momentum play. That's also why I recommended a small cap ETF, which had outperformed its large cap ETF counterpart this year.
"Looking ahead, Brazil's biggest enemy is likely to be its own hubris -- getting too cocky for its own good. But before it does, I'm betting the market has further to go. After all, it went up almost 6-fold in dollar terms during its last bull run starting in 2003.
"This is the reasoning behind my recommendation for Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF. For a potentially bigger upside, I recommended the April $45 call options. For full disclosure, this is a position that I hold on behalf of my clients at Global Guru Capital."
