Trader's read on New York Times (NYT)

Steve Rawls, in his Tips at the Bell looks at a technical strategy to uncover "unusual" trading activity, applying this approach to The New Tork Times (NYSE: NYT). Here's his "read."

"Traders should keep an eye on each day's range and compare it to a stock's average range. It can be a powerful tool for alerting you to significant developments. And it's a great way to know what the big investors are moving into.

"At some time or another, I think we've all wished that we could be a fly on the wall of some famous investor. Just knowing which stocks they're looking at would help. If only you could narrow down your search for investment candidates to those stocks that the best traders on Wall Street are interested in now.

"Well, guess what? It is possible to do just that. You can see what top investors are looking at - and I'm going to show you how to do it.

"But first, a quick refresher on what you need to look for in your charts. Charts are the footprints of the big traders. Whatever they do, they leave tracks for those who know what to look for. And what is that? Unusual activity.

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"We have lots of weapons at our disposal to spot unusual activity. The best known of these is volume. Look for spikes in volume and you know something important is underway. Combine spikes in volume with a price-action breakout and you know a major change is underway.

"But there's an even better way to discover important action before the stock pops on heavy volume. Remember, we're looking for something unusual, something out of place. Every stock has its own characteristics.

"Some stocks are inherently volatile, some rather subdued. Some stocks see the bulk of their day's activity in the first 30 minutes. Others see it on the close. So you can't apply arbitrary rules to all stocks, saying that anything over 500,000 shares is important.

"To spot 'unusual' activity in a stock, you have to know what's normal for that particular stock. Then when someone is trying to quietly accumulate the stock, you'll be alerted immediately. And the most powerful way to do this is to know what the stock's average daily range is. Daily range is the difference between the day's high and the day's low.

"There's a variation of this called Average True Range, which accounts for gaps by including the previous day's close if it's outside of today's range. Let's say a stock generally has a 30-day average range of $1.25. Yet today, you see a range of three times that. What you're seeing is a powerful change while it's occurring.

"Range expansion can be used to validate a breakout or to alert you to turning points in a stock (you'll see a lot of range expansion both at the highs and lows of a move). But it's especially useful when you find a stock in a trading range with gradual range expansion day after day.

"That should alert you that someone is trying to establish a position in a stock. Their actions are snapping up all offers, causing sellers to hold out for higher prices. Then they back off, trying not to move the stock too much. When you see this kind of range expansion over a long period of time, it can alert you to significant action before it becomes obvious to others.

"For example, let's consider one of the most unloved stocks around, the New York Times. Everyone knows that the newspaper business is in transition, and the NY Times, with its protective Class A stock, has been particularly hard hit.

"In fact, an article recently at Conde Nast's Portfolio.com asks, 'Newspapers. The Worst Investment in America?' Still, by looking at the chart, you can see that something significant is going on:

"At the bottom of this chart, the red line shows the Average True Range has been continually climbing since last June. At the beginning of June, the ATR was 55.41 cents. By April 2008, it had expanded to 71.71 cents, while the price of the NY Times was falling.

"Now, the Times has moved into a sideways congestion pattern, but the ATR continues to rise. Again, while its not obvious yet from the chart, something significant is going on with NYT. This would be confirmed by an upside breakout over $22."