Wednesday December 09, 2009
"Nothing has changed to unseat this liquidity-driven rally," says options expert Larry McMillan. In The Daily Strategist, he eyes the technical side of the market and some new trading ideas.
"Following a test of the uptrend line around 1080-1085, the S&P Index has continued to move higher. Sentiment levels have improved back above the 75th percentile. And the technical measures we follow have started to move in a more positive direction once again.
"Breadth measures moving back into overbought territory combined with weakness in risk-averse asset classes such as T-Bonds and the Yen would be a further bullish sign. The Financial sector has traded sideways; and we would prefer to see it too start to rally to support a move in S&P above 1150.
"From a broader viewpoint: if the uptrend line and hence dominant trend is maintained following this recent Dubai debt scare, it is likely to embolden the bulls as well as draw some reluctant bulls back into the fray.
"Should the above-mentioned conditions be met, we will establish new long index call exposure as it is likely that a large rally could take place into year-end. Failure to do so has the potential to inspire a rapid pull-back, however.
"Meanwhile, the signals that the computer can 'see' but the naked eye might not (that is, they are 'oversold' but have yet to roll over to a confirmed buy signal), include: Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN), Micron (NYSE:MU) and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY).
"In our Daily Volume Alerts service, we are recommending Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO), specifically, the January 43 calls at 2.20 or less.
"MOO is an ETF that tracks the DAX Agribusiness Index, by investing in agriculture stocks such as Potash, Monsanto, Deere and Archer Daniels.
"MOO traded at a new high, and stock volume patterns are positive and improving. There is support at 42-43. In addition, the agriculture futures charts are generally quite positive. If the calls are bought, stop yourself out on a close below 78."
