Thursday December 10, 2009
"The market edged to new recovery highs, but a host of divergences continue to signal a worsening condition for stocks," says Steve Hochberg in The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast.
"We know that a primary-degree topping process can, at times, feel tortuous. The Dow managed to push to another narrow recovery high.
"But all of our experience tells us that, in subtle but critical ways, the stock market is angling toward a top that will lead to the last major reversal in a decade-ong period of uber-optimism.
"The market is getting weaker, not stronger, and each successive slight new high is accompanied by worse internal technical conditions.
"Time, not price, has been the bears' nemesis of late. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000, the boradeset aggregate measure of stock market performance, is still in a sideways range that started in mid-October.
"Meanwhile, psychology has done its job and changed the minds of most of the stock market bears, just as we predicted last month. In contrast, our recent bearish stance remains intact and grows stronger with every passing day.
"The set up is in place for the bear market to return in full fury. Short-term US T-bills sport no yield, but safety is vital in the current environment.
"Gold's speculative fever rivals that of oil last year, prior to its top and subsequent crash. Silver too is near the end of of along countertrend run up. The US dollar index is in the very last subdivisions of its nine-month decline. The next major move is up."
