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Wednesday June 24, 2009
ABB (ABB) Build-out in China
"Notably, China reported that May retail sales rose 15.2% vs. a year ago after April's 14.8% gain. "At the same time, May's industrial output rose 8.9% on top of April's 7.3% increase while Chinese investment in urban areas for assets like roads and apartments rose 40% in May versus a year ago. 
"Many analysts continue to paint China as a country that will live and die by exports. What they fail to acknowledge is that China's internal strength is based on governmental spending that accounts for roughly 43% - 45% of GDP. "Net exports account for a mere 3.5% - 9%. Obviously there are variations on the theme by data source, but the net take away is that this hardly sounds like an economy that's going to live and die by what it sends overseas at this point. "So if you're tempted to dismiss China within the context of your overall investment strategy, 'forgettaboutit.' I can't think of a worse mistake to make at this point in our history and with an economic recovery building...even now. "As the world's biggest pure play on large scale electrical infrastructure projects, ABB stands to be a big winner while China builds, repairs, and retrofits her enormous electrical grid. "It's interesting to note, and very telling, that ABB's price found a bottom just about the same time that the Shanghai markets did - sooner than the S&P 500. "It's up 75% off last year's bottom and, at this point, has a higher correlation to Chinese markets than to Western ones which suggests that the markets recognize what we do - ABB's leverage to China. "If you've been building a position in ABB throughout the financial crisis as we have suggested, chances are you're going to be very happy with your brokerage statement in the next 12 months. We know we will be. "We continue to recommend the shares as a play on China's coninued emergence as a world superpower." |
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Writing from Japan,