Holly Corp. (HOC): A 'potential double'

Congratulations to Mike Turner, a member of the StreetAuthority advisory team, on the launch of his new advisory service, Mastering the Markets.

Here, he reviews his fundamental and technical strategy and offers a look at Holly Corp. (NYSE: HOC), noting, "This independent petroleum refiner gave a solid 'Buy' signal a little over two months ago and appears poised to continue moving a lot higher."

"Holly Corp. is my top-ranked 'Doubler' -- stocks with the potential to double in price. With regard to HOC's fundamentals, I like the following:

"Holly has delivered impressive year-over-year earnings growth of +34.8%. I also look at multi-year (3 to 5 years) average earnings growth, as this tells me if a particular company has long-term staying power. In this case, HOC has delivered exceptional five-year average earnings growth of +25.7%.

"One way to judge a company's health is to look at its return on equity. The higher this number, the better.  In this case, HOC sports a very strong ROE of 26.1%.

Advertisement

"Knowing a stock's price/earnings ratio (P/E) is important, but it's not nearly as important as knowing how that P/E stacks up against the stock's peers. With a P/E of 10.2, HOC is reasonably valued relative to its peer group.

"When I can get a decent dividend on a stock, I consider it a bonus. In the case of HOC, its annual yield is 2.2%.

"In addition, I want all the financial 'stars' aligned when I buy a stock. This means I want the fundamentals and technicals to be strong. However, it is also critically important to monitor the Industry and Sector.  

"Because I believe that over half of the reason why a stock moves higher or lower can be tied to its Industry and Sector, I always want both to be moving in a very bullish direction. 

"My system calculates the average price of every stock in each Industry and each sector. I want to own stocks when the 'rising tide' is lifting all boats. In this case both the Industry (Oil and Gas Operations) and Sector (Basic Materials) are in 'Bull-Mode,' which is very positive for HOC. 

"Further, I use my own set of technicals to determine the very best time to enter a trade. I use fundamentals to tell me 'what' to consider buying, but I use technicals to tell me 'when' to buy. 

"Technically, I divide each stock's three-year price chart into four distinct Zones. Each Zone is 25% of the three-year total range or volatility. In general, if an equity is in Zone 1, it is in the lowest 25% of its three-year price range. Zone 4 is the top 25%. 

"I rarely short an equity that is in the lower half of Zone 1, but if I can find a stock that is in Zone 1 and has the fundamentals and/or technicals to support a climb back up into Zone 4, then it becomes a candidate for possible inclusion in my Doublers List.

'In this case, HOC is trading in Zone 1, and the stock could double in price without even reaching its previous highs.

"In general, the more shares that are traded per day, the more liquid the stock. For market timers like me, liquidity is extremely important.  I want to be able to get in and out of a stock at the price I want, and I don't want a small handful of traders pushing the stock's share price around.  

"As such, when I am looking to get into a new position, I seriously consider both the average daily volume of shares and the trajectory of investor interest in the equity.  I like to see a stock rise on increasing week-over-week trading volume.

"In the case of HOC, the stock's trading volume, as well as the rate of increase in week-over-week volume, are both very positive. The stock is currently trading around $27 per share, and could easily move back up above $60."